![]() The noise in markets usually disguises the signal.Journalists are bred to not understand randomness – they must have a reason.This is not a text book, but there are many thought-provoking messages in it:.Many rich people are just lucky idiots.Seeing George Bush alive many times does not prove that he is immortal. This is based on John Stuart Mill’s observation that no amount of observations of white swans can prove that all swans are white – the sighting of a single black swan can disprove it. Black Swans are unexpected random events.This is because we fail to understand probability and so continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist.We often hear that an entrepreneur has ‘vision’ or that a trader is ‘talented’ but all too often their performance is down to chance, not skill. ![]()
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